2,000 Greater & Lesser Mysteries/2,000 Greater and Lesser Mysteries.iso/govern/fbi/mys00747.txt

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January 1990


                    A LOOK AHEAD:
               VIEWS OF TOMORROW'S FBI

                          By

                  Richard Sonnichsen
                    Gail O. Burton
                         and
                     Thomas Lyons


     The law enforcement community of tomorrow will serve a
society far different than that of today.  Indeed, the
differences may be so dramatic that law enforcement organizations
which are not prepared for the future may be unable to respond to
those communities they are sworn to serve.  Change is inevitable,
and it will impact on every facet of society, including its
social structure, economic policies, demo-graphics, technology,
and a myriad of other areas. Accordingly, law enforcement should
commit sufficient resources today to plan for future changes.

     With this in mind, the Office of Planning,  Evaluation and
Audits (OPEA) was tasked to conduct a study intended to describe
the FBI's working environment in the year 2000. The study
entitled ``FBI 2000: A Law Enforcement View'' was developed to
provide senior FBI management with the perceptions of other
Federal, State and local law enforcement officers about the
changing relationships  between themselves and the FBI of the
future. At the outset, OPEA  conducted extensive interviews and
surveys of senior FBI executives to determine issues that will
face the FBI in the future. Issues pertaining to budget,
personnel, technology, science, and international investigations
were among those raised during this preliminary internal
assessment phase.

     With this internal view as a framework for the study, OPEA
began the external data collection phase.  The strategy included
conducting interviews with law enforcement executives,
academicians, and criminal justice consultants. OPEA selected
interview sites that provided a geographical cross section of the
United States and key international areas. Selection of specific
interviewees was made after consultation with FBI Training
Academy personnel, respected academicians and FBI field division
managers. Criteria for interviewee selection relied heavily on a
consensus perception of the progressiveness each individual
institution demonstrated. OPEA Special Agents visited, in the
United States and internationally, 50 different law enforcement
agencies, 9 colleges/universities, and 4 criminal justice
consulting firms.

     The study participants were asked to consider their
relationship with the FBI in three major areas:  (1) Operations
and investigations, (2) training, and (3) technology and law
enforcement services. Based on their knowledge and expertise, the
respondents were asked to predict how their agencies'
relationships with the FBI may evolve during the next century.
Further, the interviewees were also asked to comment on any
issues that they believed would impact the FBI in the future.

     This article will report the highlights of this qualitative
study.  With the above three areas as a starting point, several
areas of emphasis for the FBI of the future evolved from the
study:  Operations, training, technology and science, budget,
legislation, international concerns, and privatization. What
follows is a compilation of the respondents' opinions and
suggestions based on what they viewed to be a predictable
environment for the future FBI.

OPERATIONS

     The future FBI should become an informational repository for
all categories of reactive crime. In fulfilling this role, the
FBI should assemble a national clearinghouse of criminal
information, statistics, and a modus operandi (MO) data base that
would be available to all members of the law enforcement
community. Moreover, joint operations between local police
departments and the FBI were predicted to increase and to target
specific crimes, such as drug trafficking and street gangs. Those
respondents supporting the joint operations concept speculated
that increased efficiency and economy will be a likely result to
all who participate in such future ventures.

TRAINING

     Based on cost effectiveness and efficiency, the most
acclaimed training program for local law enforcement, according
to the study, is the FBI's ``Train the Trainer Program.'' This
program promotes the development of self-sufficiency in police
training as officers who receive this initial training become
organizers of similar training programs within their own
agencies.  This program was also regarded by many responding
police executives as an effective vehicle to standardize law
enforcement procedures of the future.

     According to the data collected, there exists a void in
senior management training for local law enforcement agencies.
This training void should be filled by the FBI.  Specifically,
senior managers of local police agencies envision regional
management training that is shorter in duration and more advanced
than courses currently provided at the FBI National Academy's
first-tier training for law enforcement executives.

TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE

   The FBI has traditionally been a leader in sophisticated
technological and scientific research with practical law
enforcement applications. Local law enforcement, according to the
results of the study, expects the FBI to continue to conduct
research and development of future forensic and technological
advances.  The FBI Training Academy initiatives in computer
science, career criminal research, and offender behavioral
profiling were frequently cited as successful examples of
research and development achievements that are in keeping with
these future expectations and needs of the local law enforcement
community.

     Beyond these core issues (operations, training, and
technology and science), interviewees provided insights about
such future issues as budget, legislation, international
concerns, and privatization.

BUDGET

     International, Federal, and local law enforcement executives
were in consensus that obtaining adequate funding in the future
will be difficult. In particular, they anticipate that  there
will be increased competition for decreased funding within the
Federal law enforcement community. On the other hand, some
respondents from the academic community and private sector
envision future budgetary increases for Federal law enforcement.

     Should funding decline, one response suggested by many law
enforcement executives would be to rely more on technological
innovation and, where possible, to share expenses with other
agencies.  Also, joint technological development achieved by the
FBI and other law enforcement agencies could result in reducing
individual agency research and development outlays, while
ensuring greater interagency system-and-equipment compatibility.

     Another suggested response to diminishing budgetary
resources was to combine forces to more efficiently and cost
effectively attack mutual crime problems. Merging personnel
could take several forms, including expanding the existing task
force concept now employed by Federal, State and local agencies.
According to many foreign law enforcement executives, more
complex strategies would include the exchange of FBI Special
Agents with personnel of international law enforcement agencies.
This was also viewed as a positive response to growing
international crime.

LEGISLATION

     To address evolving crime problems, future legislative
initiatives will be required in order to equip adequately the FBI
and other Federal, State, local and international law enforcement
agencies.  Respondents believed that the FBI will be expected to
initiate and secure passage of such future legislation.

     One specific area that will receive future international
legislative attention is computer crime.  In fact, in a July
1988, report, the International Chamber of Commerce articulated a
number of topical issues that needed to be addressed in order to
combat this growing crime problem. Accordingly, investigation of
computer crime, as well as the more traditional international
crimes, including drug trafficking, terrorism and fraud, is most
difficult due to the incompatibility of legal systems among
involved countries.  For example, a criminal act in one country
may not be a criminal act in another country. Therefore, efforts
to standardize laws across international boundaries will remain a
priority well into the future.

     Even though compatibility of criminal law among nations is
not yet a reality, there is reason for optimism. In 1988 the
United Nations Conference for Narcotics Legislation resulted in a
draft proposal entitled ``United Nations Convention Against
Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and  Psychotropic
Substances.'' This draft provides a strong legal basis for
resolving many of the compatibility issues now present in the
international arena.

INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS

     Well into the future, law enforcement organizations of
developed, industrialized nations will find that problems
associated with increased global immigration will become
aggravated. People from repressive and developing countries are
increasingly searching for economic, political, and social
freedom.  Moreover, inexpensive international air travel, an
increase in multi-national corporations, an expanding base of
international commerce, and economic interdependence among
nations are important factors that have influenced increased
global migration patterns.  The challenge posed to law
enforcement now developing in the host countries is how to
provide the full range of required law enforcement services to
diverse communities.

     Many of the compelling forces compressing the world and its
peoples into closer personal and business associations are
similarly pressing members of the international law enforcement
community into new and innovative relationships. Due to its
resource base, jurisdictional span, and operational expertise,
the FBI is increasingly viewed as the U. S. law enforcement
agency that should achieve and sustain a prominent leadership
presence in the international law enforcement arena. One such
force, the increasing international character of crime, will most
certainly generate the need for more FBI international
cooperation and stronger liaison programs. Other important
features of an expanding FBI international leadership role are
likely to include laboratory assistance, technology sharing,
information exchanges and reciprocal training initiatives.
According to respondents, this role should also include FBI
sponsorship of international symposiums where problems and new
initiatives can be widely discussed.

     Another compelling force, the increased investment of
foreign money into American businesses and properties, could well
provide the financial basis on which international crime groups
will expand their foothold in the United States.  This force will
require the FBI to exchange criminal intelligence and criminal
history information with members of the international law
enforcement community on an ever- increasing scale.

     There will also be a parallel need for the foreign law
enforcement community to establish quid-pro-quo relationships
with local law enforcement agencies in the United States in order
to exchange essential criminal intelligence. According to study
findings, the FBI is in an excellent position to serve as a
valuable intermediary in this regard because foreign law
enforcement agencies often find the overlapping character of U.S.
law enforcement agencies confusing. For example, foreign agencies
get confused when several U.S. law enforcement agencies, each
with legitimate and justifiable investigative interests, make
separate inquiries on the same criminal investigation.  Further,
when a U.S. law enforcement officer visits the headquarters of a
foreign agency to transact business without advanced notice to
that agency, additional confusion occurs.

     From another perspective, the United States has
traditionally experienced crime trends 5 to 10 years before they
are encountered in other countries. Accordingly, many believe
that the FBI should host international discussions on crime
trends with appropriate foreign and U.S. law enforcement
officials. The purpose of these discussions would be to provide
results of crime trend analysis and to share information
regarding successful and unsuccessful strategies used against
various crime problems.

POLICE PRIVATIZATION

     One issue that repeatedly surfaced during interviews with
law enforcement executives worldwide was the trend toward police
privatization. While some law enforcement executives view this
trend with great concern, others see much benefit. A number of
senior police officials speculate that the future police
community will separate into three distinct strata public,
private and corporate. This stratification will continue to
evolve from the present trend toward police privatization.

     PUBLIC

     Public police agencies may well be victimized in the future
by underfunding, understaffing, lack of proper equipment, and
inadequate training. These conditions will encourage a trend
toward privatization. It was further speculated by respondents
that this underfunding of some public police organizations may
impede their ability to attract or retain well-educated
applicants, thus diminishing future expectations of high
performance and professional standards. Moreover, due to the
growth and effectiveness of private and corporate police
functions, public police departments will find their services
relegated more toward the problems of the urban poor.

     PRIVATE

     On the other hand, private police departments will be
organized to service the more affluent segments of our society,
and officers associated with those departments will be expected
to adhere to high professional standards.  Respondents believed
that these officers may likely be better  educated, trained,
equipped, and paid than their public counterparts.

     CORPORATE

     The growth of corporate policing has established what may be
regarded as quasi-criminal justice systems in many of our major
corporations. The expansion of this phenomenon is expected to
continue well into the future. Corporate security investigators
and auditors already conduct investigations regarding a wide
range of financial crimes, including credit card fraud, computer
fraud, and embezzlement.  In many cases, corporations, not the
courts, decide the disposition of these crimes.  For example,
major corporate embezzlement, reaching into hundreds of thousands
of dollars, often results only in the forced resignation of the
offender, not prosecution in a court of law.

     Corporations lack confidence in the ability of law
enforcement to address these investigations in a manner that will
protect sensitive corporate business interests. In recognition of
these circumstances, the law enforcement community should seek to
engage in closer and more effective working relationships with
the major corporations in order to better understand each other's
values, motivations, and roles. Only through greater
understanding and mutual trust will essential law enforcement
relationships with corporate America be built.

CONCLUSION

     What exactly will the working environment of the FBI and law
enforcement be in the year 2000? No one can be sure; however,
each member of the law enforcement community must carefully
contemplate its evolving role and responsibilities.
Accordingly, each must initiate a comprehensive plan for the
expected future.  Such a plan must address several factors,
including the development of a clear understanding of the
community to be served, the potential for change over time, and
the projection of the future crime trends. Additionally, any plan
for the future must face the likelihood of dwindling budgets,
expanding international relationships, and increased police
privatization.  While the future for neither the FBI nor any law
enforcement agency can be certain, it can be planned for
responsibly by men and women with courage and vision.


About the authors:

     Deputy Assistant Director Richard C. Sonnichsen, Unit Chief/
     Special Agent Gail O. Buron, and Special Agent Thomas Lyons
     are assigned to the FBI's Office of Planning, Evaluation and
     Audits at FBI Headquarters in Washington, DC.